CIT: Russia Massing Troops Near Ukraine Border in “Alarming” Numbers

Journalists recorded the largest amount of military equipment in Voronezh Region.

International group of journalists Conflict Intelligence Team published its own investigation into Russia's “alarming” buildup of troops and equipment near the borders with Ukraine. Here are the main points. 

What the Investigation Says

“It is worth noting that, in addition to troops, equipment is apparently also being moved to the Ukrainian border, in an alarming quantity that can only be explained with difficulty by the rearmament of existing units. As of the writing of our previous report (November 2 — ed.), the only new formation whose presence we noted near the Ukrainian border was the 4th Tank Division.

Now, other formations of the 1st Tank Army have joined it, as well as individual units of the 49th and 58th Armies of the Southern Military District. All of this points to a concentration of forces roughly on the scale of this spring. Either way, we agree with intelligence assessments that readiness for a possible operation in territory controlled by Ukrainian authorities will be achieved no earlier than the beginning of next year,” the investigation says. 

Journalists published photos, videos and documents showing the transport of military equipment to training grounds near Ukraine's eastern borders and in occupied Crimea. 

Two videos have emerged showing trains of BMP-3 and BTR-82 vehicles being transported to the village of Valuyki in Belgorod Region (23 km from the border with Ukraine). CIT found a TikTok video published on November 11, showing the loading of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 42nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division in Stavropol Krai, in occupied Crimea.

The video also showed a train with T-72B3 tanks, which were filmed in another TikTok video. Journalists note that the pace of troop transfers is slower than in April 2021. 

However, if the current redeployment and staffing of military units continues, by January the total number of personnel and equipment of the Russian army will exceed April figures. Journalists recorded the most telling deployment of military equipment at the Pogonovo training ground in Voronezh Region. 

Conflict Intelligence Team brings together independent journalists and researchers who track and monitor modern military conflicts. In spring 2021, they also published reports on the concentration of Russian troops near Ukraine's borders. 

CIT is cooperating with Bellingcat on the investigation into the downing of the Malaysian passenger plane Boeing on July 17, 2014 by militants backed by Russia. 

Military Aid from Canada

Canada is considering strengthening its military mission in Ukraine amid the buildup of Russian troops on the border. Two options are being considered by newly appointed Defence Minister Anita Anand. 

One of them is moving several hundred military personnel to support Canadian soldiers already in Ukraine on a training mission. 

The other option is moving a warship to the Black Sea or redeploying some CF-18 fighter jets currently based in Romania. 

“Putin Is Playing on Contradictions”

Ukraine's intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, during a visit to the United States, said that strengthening US-Ukrainian military cooperation enhances the security of all of Europe. 

Kyrylo Budanov
head of the Defense Ministry's intelligence

The level of military-technical cooperation demonstrated by Ukraine and the US strengthens security in the Eastern European region. Without an independent and stable Ukrainian state, there will be no reliable security environment not only in Eastern Europe but across all of Europe. Therefore, strengthening US-Ukrainian military cooperation enhances the security of all of Eastern Europe. Putin is playing on contradictions between countries, and the only way to counter this is through cooperation. 

According to him, US-Ukrainian cooperation in the security and defense sector has reached a new level. The head of the HUR stated that Ukraine's leadership and the Defense Ministry highly appreciate the US contribution to deterring Russian aggression.