Intelligence Believes Russia May Invade Ukraine in January-February

According to Budanov, this invasion would be more destructive than the one in 2014.

Russia may try to attack Ukraine in late January or early February, said Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, in an interview with Military Times.

According to official estimates, more than 92,000 military personnel are now concentrated near the Russian-Ukrainian border. In addition, Russia continues to militarize occupied Crimea, deploying missile systems on the peninsula.

Kyrylo Budanov
head of the HUR MoD

The attack will likely include airstrikes, artillery and armored attacks, followed by airborne assault operations in the east, landings in Odesa and Mariupol, and a smaller-scale invasion from Belarus.

According to Budanov, the 'Zapad-2021' military exercises proved that Russia can land up to 3,500 special forces and paratroopers at once.

Direct military aggression will be preceded by psychological operations aimed at destabilizing the situation in Ukraine.

Thus, Russia is trying to fuel anti-government sentiment over the 'Wagnergate' incident by running an anti-vaccination campaign and spreading fake reports of a supposed 'severe energy crisis'.

According to Budanov, Russian psychological operations are used to show that supposedly 'our authorities have betrayed the people'.

Kyrylo Budanov
head of the HUR MoD

They want to make the situation inside the country increasingly dangerous and difficult and create a situation in which we must change the government. If they fail to do this, the military will do its job.

Budanov said that the assessments of US and Ukrainian intelligence regarding the timing of Russia's attack are 'almost identical'.

According to him, the ongoing border conflict between Poland and Belarus, which is trying to send refugees into Europe across the Polish border, is part of these efforts.

Budanov believes that restraining Russian aggression could be achieved by increasing US military aid to Ukraine, as well as imposing additional tough sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia.

In particular, according to Budanov, the United States could supply Ukraine with Patriot air defense missile systems, as well as anti-missile, artillery and mortar systems for this purpose.

However, defense agencies in Ukraine and the United States believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet made a final decision. 

Just a few days earlier, Budanov said that Russia's military maneuvers would 'peak' by the end of January, without providing any data on a possible invasion.