Kuleba: Russia's chances of invasion depend on two factors

Russia claims Ukraine wants to create "another disaster".

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Ukraine 24 TV that the likelihood of a Russian invasion depends on two factors: the strength and restraint of Ukraine, and the strength and coordination of its international partners. 

Kuleba believes a new offensive operation is one of the options being considered by Russia's leadership and President Vladimir Putin personally. Whether he uses this option will depend on two factors. 

The foreign minister named the first factor as Ukraine's strength, calm and restraint. The second factor is the coordination and strength of Ukraine's international partners' actions. 

According to Kuleba, the authorities are working on both factors. He believes Russia's main goal is to make Ukraine as weak as possible by destabilizing it from within and blocking its cooperation with other countries in the defense sphere. 

Dmytro Kuleba
Ukrainian Foreign Minister

In the coming months, we must, both society and the state, demonstrate maximum effectiveness and maximum restraint, and not fall for provocations either inside the country or in the conflict zone. I call on everyone not to panic in the coming months, but to stay vigilant and not fall for provocations, especially in the information space. 

What Putin's side said

Russia claimed that Ukraine is looking for a way to return to a forceful settlement of the situation in Donbas under the cover of the growing presence of NATO military in the region. 

Dmitry Peskov
Press Secretary of the Russian President

Ukraine is most likely seeking yet another attempt to start a forceful solution to its own problem. To create another disaster for itself and for everyone in Europe. That is what Ukraine is seeking. And it is most likely doing so under the cover of those very NATO exercises and NATO ships in the Black Sea, and American and British soldiers in the region, of whom there are more and more. That is what Ukraine is after. 

He added that "this is a heartbreaking sight, because it will entail the most, most serious consequences". 

Russian Security Council warns of risk of provocations

Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council Alexander Grebenkin said there is an increased risk of provocations by Ukraine in the Crimean direction and against Russia's economic facilities in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. 

Alexander Grebenkin
Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council

As a result of the coup, people professing radical nationalism and Russophobia have held power in Ukraine for years, and for their own opportunistic reasons have baselessly declared our country an "aggressor". This factor undoubtedly has an extremely negative impact on the operational situation on the Russian-Ukrainian section of the state border. Thus, recently the risks of Ukrainian special services and radical organizations carrying out provocations in the Crimean direction and against maritime economic facilities and transport crossings in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea have increased. 

He also said that the border with Ukraine is seeing a rise in cross-border crime linked to channels for the illegal movement of weapons, ammunition and explosives, as well as the smuggling of drugs, goods, cargo and fuels and lubricants. 

Grebenkin said: "Destructive activity by the Ukrainian authorities continues, aimed at exerting a negative informational impact on Russian citizens living in the Republic of Crimea and other border regions of Russia. This happens, among other ways, through the dissemination of distorted and unreliable information about our country's domestic and foreign policy via various media outlets." 

Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Peskov, commenting on information from Ukrainian and Western intelligence services about preparations for an invasion of Ukraine, also said he "does not rule out attempts at provocations". 

US intelligence data

US intelligence shared its data, including maps, with European allies. According to them, Russia is considering a scenario of a rapid, large-scale offensive operation against Ukraine in several directions, followed by a prolonged occupation, if Vladimir Putin decides to launch an invasion. This is reported by Bloomberg citing information from anonymous sources. 

The data was passed to several NATO member states last week to back up concerns about Putin's possible intentions. The US believes the Russian president may be planning an invasion in early 2022. 

Two of the publication's sources said half of these forces are already in position and that the invasion is planned to be supported by aviation. 

Two sources said Russia has begun a mobilization of reservists unprecedented since post-Soviet times, and their role will likely be to hold territory once the main forces have moved in, although Russia has not publicly announced a large-scale call-up of reservists. 

One of the sources said the US has passed on information to allies indicating an escalation of disinformation attacks against Ukraine, and that Moscow is preparing new agents to destabilize the situation in Ukraine.