UN: Ukraine's Population May Fall to 35 Million in Less Than 30 Years

About a third of Ukrainians die before the age of 65.

By 2050, Ukraine's population may shrink to 35 million people. About a third of Ukrainians die before the age of 65. This is stated in the UN analytical brief “Demographic Processes.” The UN advises the authorities to take care of citizens' quality of life. 

“Ukraine's population is declining at one of the fastest rates in the world and is likely to fall to 35 million by 2050. Low birth rates, high mortality and the steady rise in external migration are eroding Ukraine's human capital, and therefore the foundation of sustainable development,” the UN said. 

The organization noted that insufficient levels of well-being and the lack of opportunities for women to combine careers with childcare remain among the factors preventing Ukrainians from having the number of children they want. 

The UN reported that about a third of Ukrainians die before the age of 65, but more than half of these deaths could be prevented. According to rough estimates, around 3 million Ukrainian workers are permanently located outside the country, and their number is likely to continue growing. 

High poverty and difficulties in finding well-paid employment are compounded by political, social and security factors that encourage outward migration. 

Nearly half of Ukrainian migrants work in low-skilled jobs for which they are overqualified, but they are attracted by the gradually easing access to EU labor markets. 

About a third of the recent increase in migration came from Ukrainians under the age of 35, who generally have better education than those who remained in Ukraine. 

“The growing number of Ukrainian students abroad is increasing the outflow of personnel, and only some of them plan to return, which leads to skills mismatches and labor shortages in various sectors of the economy and regions of the country,” the document says. 

In addition, the rural population in Ukraine is shrinking, due to the migration of young, better-educated and more affluent segments of the population. 

More than one-fifth of the population is over 60, and by 2050 this share is forecast to rise to 36%. Women make up about two-thirds of the population over 65 and nearly three-quarters of the population over 80. 

Spending related to the needs of older people will see one of the sharpest increases in Europe and is projected to reach 25% of GDP by 2050. 

The labor force in Ukraine, which is characterized by low participation, especially among older Ukrainian men and women as well as women of working age, is expected to shrink by more than 30% by 2050. 

Informal employment also reduces social insurance contributions. The UN noted that population decline in itself is not a problem, but the level and quality of life of Ukrainian citizens are what matter. 

“Low birth rates are unlikely to change under any scenario. Therefore, policy measures are needed to ensure the development and effective use of the country's human capital, as well as to provide people with adequate social protection through a politically and financially stable system,” the organization said.