US Intelligence: Russia Plans Offensive Against Ukraine Involving 175,000 Troops

Biden said he does not accept anyone's "red lines".

US intelligence has found that Russia is planning an offensive on Ukraine on several fronts as early as the beginning of 2022, involving 175,000 servicemembers. We explain what the intelligence found, and what Biden says about "red lines".

Intelligence Data

A senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Washington Post: "Russian plans foresee a military offensive on Ukraine as early as the beginning of 2022, with a force twice the size of the one we saw last spring during Russia's sudden drills near Ukraine's border. The plans include the broad movement of 100 battalion tactical groups totaling about 175,000 people, as well as armored vehicles, artillery and equipment."

A US intelligence document obtained by the publication includes satellite photographs. They show Russian troops concentrating in four locations.

According to a US map, Russia's military strength stands at 70,000, but it is projected to grow to 175,000, and describes the broad movement of battalion tactical groups toward and away from the border "to conceal intentions and create uncertainty".

According to the document, 50 combat tactical groups have been deployed so far, along with "newly arrived" tanks and artillery.

It is assumed that Russian forces may leave equipment at training sites in order to quickly launch an attack on Ukraine.

A US administration representative, commenting to AP, said that while laying the groundwork for an invasion, the Russian government is also running a propaganda campaign.

According to him, "our information indicates that Russian proxies and media have begun increasing the number of materials discrediting Ukraine and NATO, partly to blame Ukraine for the potential escalation of Russia's own military escalation".

What Biden said

In response to Russia's demands, US President Joe Biden said he does not accept anyone's "red lines", after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the expansion of NATO's military infrastructure onto Ukrainian territory could be a "red line" for Russia.

Biden said he is preparing "the most extensive and significant set of initiatives, which will make it very difficult for Putin to do what he is feared to be planning to do".

Joe Biden
President of the United States

We have known about Russia's actions for a long time, and I expect we will have a lengthy discussion with Putin. I do not accept anyone's "red lines".

What Putin was hinting at

Recall that Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wants "specific agreements" in writing with the US and other NATO members that would stipulate that the alliance will not expand eastward.

Putin noted that he sees the main goal of providing Russia with "reliable and long-term security guarantees".

Vladimir Putin
President of Russia

In dialogue with the US and its allies, we will insist on developing specific agreements that exclude any further NATO advance eastward and the deployment of weapons systems threatening us directly next to Russian territory. We propose starting substantive negotiations on this matter. I especially emphasize: we need precisely legal, binding guarantees, since our Western colleagues have failed to fulfill their verbal obligations, ignored Russia's concerns and continue to do so.

The Russian president did not mention specific countries, but his words clearly concern primarily Ukraine and Georgia.

"We do not demand any special conditions for ourselves. We understand that any agreements must necessarily take into account the interests of both Russia and all Euro-Atlantic states. A calm, stable situation must be ensured for everyone and is needed by all without exception," Putin added.