Negotiations in the Normandy Format Ended in a Successful Failure

Why it is hard to believe in our new Ukrainian state happiness.

For the past several days I have been told in various ways that I was wrong and the Normandy talks ended in success, not failure. I am a non-confrontational person, so I offer the following compromise in theses: the talks in the “Normandy” format ended in a successful failure. This is not sarcasm — analyzing the “insider” reports appearing in popular Telegram channels and statements by members of the negotiating group on the Ukrainian side, one can conclude that the talks were deliberately disrupted because the process reached a dead end and the “Normandy” format itself needs to be changed in principle. 

I deliberately did not react to each “insider” and each news item separately, collecting them over the past several days into a separate folder to analyze them in a single text. 

Let's start with the Telegram channel Legitimate. Like the channel Resident, it is rightly linked to the Office of the President, so there is every reason to trust the information that appears there, because it is practically direct speech from the top officials of the state. 

In response to the text “Three Days Before the War,” in which I wrote about the failure of the negotiating process, the Office responded with the following message: 

Legitimny

Our source in the Kremlin reported that no military action against Ukraine is planned, and that the information campaign in the media is a provocation used to fuel tensions in Ukraine and for “hype.” The source explains that the situation around the Donbas issue is currently frozen, discussions and back-room bargaining are ongoing, but none of the sides is interested in a “hot phase” right now. This information was also confirmed by our source in the Office of the President of Ukraine.

“The situation is frozen, back-room bargaining is ongoing, there will be no escalation!” — the main message wrapped in an insider report. 30 drops of valerian for everyone who got worked up.

The next day the Rezident channel continued the psychotherapy for everyone overexcited by the word “war” and reported that the situation is not so much frozen as having reached a dead end because of Russia.

Rezident

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak is forming a new club of friends of Ukraine who will act as guarantors of the peace process in Donbas. The Minsk agreements have reached a dead end because of Russia, which refuses to transform the outdated agreement, and its demands for the federalization of Ukraine are unacceptable for our country. The Normandy format is unable to resolve the emerging contradictions, which testifies to the failure of this international platform.

Despite the brevity of this message, several important messages are packed into it:

1. Old friends no longer help Ukraine.
2.  The talks have reached a dead end and talks in the Normandy format are no longer possible.
3. Ukraine has rejected the previously signed agreement and wants to revise relations. 
   
4. Russia refuses to discuss a new agreement and demands fulfillment of the obligations under the last one signed. 
   

Literally in one day the story about back-room bargaining, which could be considered a continuation of the negotiating process, has disappeared somewhere, and international partners in the form of Germany and France turned out to be incompetent, which led to the Office having to break off relations with them (or them having to break off relations with the Office) and urgently think about creating a club of “new friends of Ukraine”.

Why did Germany and France leave the negotiating process after 11 hours of talks? The answer is obvious — one side completely ignored its obligations, whose fulfillment was guaranteed by international partners. These theses are also confirmed by the Russian sources of the Legitimny channel. The only difference in the messages is this: Ukrainian sources blame Russia for the breakdown of the talks, while Russia blames Ukraine. 

Legitimny

#Breakdown Source Ria Novosti (Russian media) said the same thing that our source reported this morning. Our source reports that there will be no Normandy meeting in August, and the Office of the President knows this. The statement by Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the Donbas issue — Oleksiy Reznikov, who said: “I am convinced that such a meeting is possible within August. It is possible on condition that we truly move toward each other. I by no means idealize our opponents in the negotiating process, and I understand when they drag out time and when they actually want to achieve something.”

Against the backdrop of all these reports, the statement by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories Oleksiy Reznikov unexpectedly stood out; in an interview with Censor.net he said that the Russians at the talks are not showing hostility and are demonstrating a desire to bring positions closer, so it is too early to talk about a dead end.

And at the same time he stated that it is impossible to negotiate with the current composition of the Russian delegation: “I believe that a rotation, a replacement of representatives, will also take place on their side, and sooner or later this will make it possible to reach agreements. Because today a number of representatives who have been there for six years are incapable of saying ‘yes.’”

In other words, “the talks have not been disrupted, everything is fine, but we can no longer negotiate with these people!” A very contradictory message, to which the Legitimny channel reacted quite harshly:

Legitimny

Our source reports that there will be no Normandy meeting in August, and the Office of the President knows this. The statement by Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the Donbas issue, Oleksiy Reznikov, who said: “I am convinced that such a meeting is possible within August. It is possible on condition that we truly move toward each other. I by no means idealize our opponents in the negotiating process, and I understand when they drag out time and when they actually want to achieve something.” This statement is Reznikov's “wishful thinking,” who voiced the strategy of Yermak, who very much wants a Normandy meeting at the end of September in order to boost the ratings of the Servant of the People party and Zelensky ahead of the “autumn elections”. We wrote about this back in June. The source adds that Reznikov is trying to “shift the emphasis,” showing that Ukraine always shows initiative and is ready for dialogue, while Russia is the one that “spoils” everything. Our negotiators are trying to seize the initiative in the “information war” over the Donbas issue. Our negotiators are more interested in the domestic bloc of our country, because “peace in Donbas” is Zelensky's promise, which he continues to fulfill. Yermak and Reznikov, understanding that there will be no peace in the near future and no “victories” on this track either, have begun creating informational victories, creating the illusion of vigorous activity toward achieving peace in Donbas. This is what they want to “sell” to voters.

Another soothing pill for the president has been revealed: Volodymyr Oleksandrovych, don't worry, the talks will continue in the autumn — we are just preparing for the elections this way! If one interprets Reznikov's messages in this context, one can assume that the Russian side is simply playing along with its indignation in order to  increase the international political mass of the head of the Office of the President. 

It is unclear why this is needed, since Andriy Yermak's mass on the international arena is already equal to the mass of the Sun without it. At least that is the impression one gets when analyzing the international plans of the head of the OP: a new club of friends of Ukraine, and the United States and Great Britain instead of Germany and France in talks with Russia. 

Rezident

Our source in the OP reported that for the autumn the Head of the Office of the President is preparing a new international track regarding the Donbas issue. Our country will await the results of the US elections and the active position of the new President on the Ukrainian direction. Andriy Yermak considers it necessary to involve the United States and Great Britain in the negotiating process as guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum.

An excellent example of political strategy and a brilliant political career in one person. Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, who has been in politics for just a year, is tearing up onerous agreements with Russia, refusing help from France and Germany, assembling a new international club of friends of Ukraine, and bringing Great Britain and the United States into the new negotiating process along with a president who has not yet been elected! 

There are several questions about this: 

1. What does Great Britain think about participating in the negotiating process?
2. Is Russia ready for this format of talks?
   
3. Which international partners have expressed readiness to join the club of Ukraine's international partners?
   

Forgive my doubts, respected heads of state. The thing is, before you we mostly had incompetent, stupid and thieving politicians, so I am not so much doubting your political genius as I simply find it hard to believe in our new Ukrainian state happiness.