Defense Minister Reznikov doubts Russian invasion of Ukraine and is confident Russia will retreat if war becomes "too costly" for it
He is also confident that Ukraine will soon be asked to join NATO.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov gave a major interview to Voice of America about the latest developments surrounding the buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine's borders.
In his view, Reznikov rules out a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, but is confident that Russia will not abandon its "pursuit" of Ukraine until the cost of a potential war becomes too high for it.
On the likelihood of an invasion
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov believes there will be no large-scale Russian offensive and no capture of new Ukrainian territory.
Oleksii Reznikov
Ukrainian Defense MinisterI don't believe it. Because let's not forget: over these 8 years of war we have learned to defend ourselves. Our armed forces are at a high level, especially the Ground Forces. I had the honor of spending four days in the ATO zone with Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi, talking with commanders and soldiers and being in the trenches. The mood there is absolutely combat-ready and confident, people know how to defend their country.
He also noted that Ukraine has 400,000 or more veterans who have been through the front and are ready to defend their land again in case of unforeseen events. Therefore, there will be no easy passage like there was in 2014.
"Today people know what spilled blood is, and they also know how to spill the enemy's blood and are able to do it," Reznikov said.
Reznikov said that Ukrainian intelligence data coincide with European and American intelligence data on the concentration of Russian troops near Ukraine, but that "assessments may differ".
Oleksii Reznikov
We are not panicking, because over these 8 years of war we have become used to the threat. Accordingly, we perceive this more calmly, because we are simply already prepared, while for them it has somehow become a bit unexpected. They believe the data indicates rising risks, and I agree with them, because there are signs of escalation.
He also noted that it is important for Ukraine that Western partners have finally begun to "sound the alarm" publicly, thanks in part to media outlets such as The Washington Post, Politico and others, which drew the attention of the whole world.
Oleksii Reznikov
Even in a difficult situation, I look for the positive. In the threat I see something positive: it has drawn the attention of the civilized world, and now a reaction is beginning that gives us a chance to show the aggressor that the price of this aggression will be prohibitive".
On retreat at a "high price"
Reznikov also expects US support in the face of the threat of aggression from Russia, and hopes that the West, through systematic support, will make the price of aggression against Ukraine too high for Russia.
Oleksii Reznikov
Ukrainian Defense MinisterOver 8 years of war we have become used to the international community continuing to express concern and anxiety. If we take the "vocabulary" of 1939, when the League of Nations existed and Hitler had already begun conquering countries and the so-called "Phoney War" began, then at first it was the same lexicon. Surprise, concern and anxiety do not work. The Kremlin building has very high and thick walls, and they have long not heard concern, and have developed immunity to a certain level of sanctions.
According to the minister, the Kremlin will react only if this war becomes very costly and unprofitable. "Only such decisive steps, including by the United States as the leading world power, can demonstrate this to them," Reznikov said.
By the price of aggression, Reznikov means the loss of human lives, economic losses, and the loss by Vladimir Putin's entourage of access to bank accounts.
Oleksii Reznikov
Almost all of their savings are held in US dollars. It does not matter whether it is a Swiss bank, a Singaporean one or some Panamanian one: the money is mainly in US dollars, which means it can be hit by sanctions.
He is also confident that ordinary Russian citizens do not want war.
Oleksii Reznikov
The question is whether an ordinary Russian wants to pay for this aggression instead of eating well and safely sending his children to school. For what? And let's not forget that wars also mean coffins, in which Russian soldiers were returned. A spring study by the Russian research center Levada Center on the main fears of Russians showed that fear number one is the fear of war. The second fear is the fear of repression. That is what Russians are afraid of. If most of Russia's population fears war, then why would their leader go to war?.
Reznikov noted that the United States is a strategic partner of Ukraine and that Kyiv expects "real US support in the face of a serious threat of aggression from the Russian Federation".
The Ukrainian Defense Minister believes that the Kremlin "receives signals" during visits by US officials to Moscow, and that "Washington's open policy gives more confidence to other capitals of the European Union".
Reznikov also said he would like to see more solidarity and "more resolve" from Western partners regarding Ukraine.
Oleksii Reznikov
Those who understand all the risks precisely are the Baltic states and Poland. They are our closest friends. They too were once under Soviet occupation, and I hope that this wave of anxiety, not for the sake of anxiety itself but for the sake of a reaction, will also start to work in Europe.
"Ukraine will soon be asked to join NATO"
Reznikov expects that Ukraine will soon be asked to join NATO. This will be of mutual benefit.
Oleksii Reznikov
Ukrainian Defense MinisterNo other NATO army has the experience that our Ground Forces have. This is the experience of confronting a powerful army for seven and a half years. Therefore, they will soon be asking us to join the Alliance. Here is my forecast for you.
At the same time, Reznikov noted that joining NATO will be a political decision, requiring consensus among Alliance members.
Oleksii Reznikov
It is not a fact that this will happen quickly. Some Alliance members in 2008 prevented us from becoming NATO members together with the Georgians, although that opportunity existed. Some NATO members continue to build certain "Nord Streams" with the Russians, using energy weapons not only against Ukraine.
According to him, Ukraine needs NATO membership not for the sake of membership, but for the opportunity to earn an honorable place in this Alliance and to gain mutual benefit.
Oleksii Reznikov
NATO is not just a military alliance, but much broader. It concerns democracy, the economy, new technologies and more. That is why we need not only NATO but also the European Union and other alliances. We need not just to study their standards but to implement them within ourselves, becoming NATO members not de jure but de facto.
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