The Second Wave of Coronavirus: Will It Happen or Not?

A doctor from Spain talks about the prospects for the spread of COVID-19 around the world.

We cannot predict or rule out a second wave of coronavirus, but we can only analyze the past and the present. In the last century there were three flu pandemics. The deadliest, in 1918-1919, spread in three waves, of which the second was the most lethal — 64% of deaths.

In 1957, the Asian flu also spread in three waves, and the second was the deadliest. In 1968, the Hong Kong flu spread more slowly: the second wave began a year after the first and was accompanied by increased morbidity.

New waves of coronavirus will depend on its ability to mutate, on our immunity and on the ability of states to control COVID-19.

We know almost nothing about the mutations of the coronavirus. It may combine with the flu, which is adapted to mutations. To curb the spread of the pandemic, we need to build herd immunity among 70% of the population — this would protect the remaining 30% in the risk group.

In Spain, less than 10% of the population has come into contact with the coronavirus, so we are far from the expected 70%. We still have no vaccine, and we are not sure that infection guarantees immunity in the future. Most likely, one of three scenarios awaits us.

A more deadly second wave in autumn-winter 2020 with quarantine, and weak waves in 2021

Several waves over the next couple of years, with the coronavirus subsiding by 2022

Weak waves without quarantine, with the coronavirus gradually disappearing

There may be a second wave, or there may not. We have put out the fire, but the embers continue to glow. But we cannot keep destroying the economy, so I hope for the third scenario. We have not defeated the coronavirus, and our goal is not to destroy it but to learn to live in the new reality.