Three Days Until War

In three days, the military-political conflict with Russia in Ukraine will escalate, believes political technologist Vladimir Petrov.

They will start shooting, bombing, and killing again. There is nothing terrible about it, a familiar story, especially if you watch it from Kyiv or Lviv. Two or three, and even 5-10 Ukrainian soldiers killed per day, against the backdrop of deaths from COVID-19, is not such a big tragedy for the country. Especially since people die of an epidemic for nothing, while in war — for the Motherland and territorial integrity. 

What led to the war, which will begin on July 7 and which we do not yet know about and do not expect? It was caused by the latest 'Normandy' meeting in Berlin. The Russians stated that Ukraine has not fulfilled a single one of its conditions from that 'understanding' signed between Yermak on the Ukrainian side and Kozak on the Russian side. The Russians promised to support the exchange of prisoners, ensure gas transit, and return 3 billion dollars. The Ukrainians, in turn, were to ensure changes to the Constitution, include articles on the special status of the DPR-LPR, and add a clause on elections. Plus there were also points about supplying water to Crimea, direct air travel between Ukraine and Russia, and troop withdrawal, but all these points were secondary; the main condition was amending the Constitution.

The Russians believe they have fulfilled their conditions, while the Ukrainians once again spat in the enemy's face with dignity. The head of the Presidential Office turned out to be not as simple and understandable for them as they thought. It's no secret that the basic skill for which Yermak was put in charge of the Office was his stated ability to bring peace to Ukraine. Yermak's political and social connections were supposed to give the Kremlin, in the person of Kozak, a maximally clear discussion and process for establishing a ceasefire. But the 'presidential shield' presented Russia with a patriotic surprise, demonstratively 'dumping' Putin personally. This is what the Russian side then accused the French and German partners of over the course of 11 hours. 

In the end, everyone left not just empty-handed, but with harsh conditions: 

Putin will not meet with Zelensky until all the points of the Yermak-Kozak pact are fulfilled; Ukraine has three days to adopt the changes to the Constitution.

In sum:

Russian representative Kozak confirmed the ultimatum nature of the demands, stating that the 'Quartet' talks ended with nothing and the communication process is frozen until Ukraine fulfills its obligations. 

President Zelensky has already stated that 'Such a tone of negotiations is unacceptable!', thereby signaling that changes to the Constitution will not be made. And it's not only about the tone; it's also that assembling a faction and forcing it to vote for these changes is practically impossible. 

Andrey Yermak, however, believes that the meeting marked a step toward new negotiations.