I still believe Putin does not want a full-scale war, Biden says

The State Department has allowed Baltic states to transfer weapons to Ukraine.

During a press conference marking the first anniversary of his inauguration, U.S. President Joe Biden said that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not plan to unleash a full-scale war in Europe. 

An NYT journalist said: "After your meeting with Putin in Geneva in June 2021, you said Putin definitely does not want a return to the state of the Cold War in relations between the United States and Russia. Since then, he has amassed 100,000 troops along Ukraine's borders, and the U.S. secretary of state has said Russia's attack could happen at any moment. Do you still believe Putin does not need a war, and has your attitude toward Putin changed in recent months?".

Joe Biden
President of the United States

My answer: I still believe Putin does not want a full-scale war, that's first. Second, do I believe Putin wants to test the reaction of the West, the United States and NATO to possible aggression? Yes, I think he will test our readiness. But I know he will pay a big and serious price if he does not change his intentions now. And I think he will regret such a decision for the rest of his life (aggression against Ukraine — ed.). I believe it is very hard for him to get used to what he considers the greatest tragedy in Russia's history — the collapse of the USSR. He is trying to find Russia's place in the world between China and the West. I could not say that Putin knows what he wants and what he is going to do. I suspect he will take some action. Now he is forced to do something. 

According to him, the Russian economy is too dependent on energy sales in the European market, so prolonged destabilization, in particular the termination of economic relations between the EU and Russia, would be very painful for Russians themselves. 

Biden noted that the U.S. has prepared a "very painful" package of sanctions that have never before been applied against Russia. 

In the event of a full-scale invasion, Russia will face a serious economic downturn and loss of its financial resources; in particular, Russian banks will lose the ability to carry out international transactions. 

The U.S. president said he personally warned Putin and made clear the scale of these sanctions during negotiations with him in December 2021. 

Responding to a journalist's question about a possible U.S. reaction to "less large-scale" forms of Russian aggression, in particular cyberattacks, Biden said the U.S. would resort to the same means, including in the field of cybersecurity. 

The president stressed that the U.S. supports Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity amid Russian aggression. His administration has sent Ukraine a defense aid package worth about $60 million. 

Nord Stream 2 is a lever of influence on Russia

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is a lever of influence on Russia. 

Blinken noted that the U.S. continues to oppose the gas pipeline because it effectively undermines Europe's energy security. He added that the pipeline poses enormous potential damage to Ukraine, as it gives Russia the opportunity not to use the existing pipeline through Ukraine, which would lead to large transit fees for Ukraine. 

The secretary of state recalled that the pipeline has effectively been built but not put into operation. 

Antony Blinken
U.S. Secretary of State

According to National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, this pipeline is now as much of a lever for us as it is for Russia, if not more. Because the idea that if Russia resumes aggression against Ukraine, gas will flow through this pipeline is very, very unlikely. Yes, it is an interesting factor to see whether it affects Russia's thinking when it decides what to do. 

Any crossing of the border will be regarded as an "invasion"

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said, citing President Biden's words, that the crossing of the border "by Russian troops will be regarded as an invasion." 

Jen Psaki
White House Press Secretary

President Biden made it clear to the President of Russia: if any Russian military forces cross the Ukrainian border, it will be regarded as an invasion that will face a swift and harsh response from the United States and our allies. 

According to her, Biden knows from experience "that Russians have a long history of aggression which, in addition to military action, includes cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics." 

Biden confirmed that "acts of Russian aggression will be met with a decisive, mutual and singular response." 

State Department allows Baltic states to transfer weapons to Ukraine

Politico reports that the U.S. State Department has given permission to three NATO allies, the Baltic states, to send American-made weapons to Ukraine. 

"Requests from Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania came in over the past few weeks, and the last of them was approved on Wednesday evening," a State Department source said. 

Under export control rules, these three countries had to obtain permission from the State Department before transferring weapons to Ukraine. The source declined to specify which weapons were permitted for transfer. 

The permission came after U.S. officials had toughened their warning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.