FT: US Intelligence Convinces EU and NATO Allies of Russian Threat to Ukraine

Previously, the allies had been skeptical about the possibility of an attack by Russia.

EU and NATO countries backed the assessment of US President Joe Biden's administration that Russia may invade Ukraine, after an unprecedented exchange between the United States and its allies of intelligence on Moscow's military preparations. This is reported by Financial Times, citing sources.

Weeks of constant diplomatic contacts between the US and European governments, backed by the exchange of intelligence, helped persuade some previously skeptical capitals, including Berlin, that the Kremlin may soon order its troops into Ukraine.

These efforts boosted support for the need to introduce tough sanctions to deter the Kremlin.

On December 7, Joe Biden will warn Vladimir Putin against invasion at a planned video summit with full NATO and EU support, European defense and security officials told the newspaper.

Russia may plan an invasion of Ukraine "in the near future, at the beginning of 2022," a representative of the Biden administration said on Friday. According to him, half of the military units that will be involved in such an offensive have approached the Ukrainian border over the past month.

The US decision to share its intelligence with European states and publicly issue warnings is linked to Washington's hope that support for sanctions will make the "price" of aggression too high for Moscow.

Details of possible sanctions and other countermeasures are still being discussed.

The Kremlin consistently denies that it plans to invade Ukraine and blames the growth of US and NATO support for Ukraine for increasing tensions.

US intelligence reports showing the deployment of Russian troops along the border, evidence of possible preparations for an attack and analysis of the Kremlin's likely intentions were passed to NATO members and through EU diplomatic channels bilaterally and collectively, officials familiar with the documents told the FT.

The volume of material and details provided to the other 29 NATO allies was described by one official as "extremely comprehensive."

The unusual level of intelligence sharing was prompted by the initial reluctance of some European allies to regard US claims about Russia's preparations for invasion as credible, four officials said.

The disclosure of previously classified details began in early November and preceded last week's meeting of NATO foreign ministers, at which discussions on Ukraine dominated.

Intelligence helped shift the conversation from whether the warning was correct to how best to deter the offensive, the newspaper writes.

According to sources, at the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Riga there was a "big shift toward the American version of events."

The US said Russia is preparing to deploy 100 battalion tactical groups totaling about 175,000 military personnel at strategic locations along the Ukrainian border, supported by 100,000 reserve personnel.

Some EU and NATO countries called for dialogue with Moscow rather than confrontation, pointing out that Russia had previously built up and then reduced its forces near the border. But US intelligence data changed Europeans' views on Vladimir Putin's intentions, the FT writes.