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Oscars 2020: Who Will Win?

09 February 2020, 15:00

Almost everything is known, but there may be surprises.

Tonight, from February 9 to 10, the 92nd Academy Awards ceremony will take place. It will close the awards season and, by all accounts, will be quite predictable, at least in most of the major categories. Here are the lineups with odds from the bookmaker Bwin, and we explain where the voting members of the Academy might surprise.

Best Actor

Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”) 1.02
Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”) 17.00
Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) 34.00
Jonathan Pryce (“The Two Popes”) 67.00
Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”) 67.00

In October 2019, after the release of “Joker,” we wrote that the new image of the criminal prince of Gotham would become iconic regardless of its box-office success and the number of awards it won. The predictions have come true, and from a commercial standpoint the project was incredibly successful. Todd Phillips’s film became the first R-rated film to gross more than a billion dollars. “Joker” has 11 Oscar nominations, and for this role Joaquin Phoenix will receive his first statuette (on his fourth attempt).

Phoenix has won all the awards at the ceremonies preceding the Oscars, he delivers memorable and provocative speeches from the stage, and he is at the peak of his popularity. Initially it was assumed that “Joker” might be too dark for the academicians, and there was talk of a possible win for Adam Driver or even Antonio Banderas, but now there are no doubts.

Best Actress

Renée Zellweger (“Judy”) 1.05
Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”) 10.00
Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”) 26.00
Saoirse Ronan (“Little Women”) 34.00
Charlize Theron (“Bombshell”) 51.00

Renée Zellweger was forgotten, Renée Zellweger was written off, but 16 years after winning the Best Supporting Actress award for “Cold Mountain,” the actress is returning to finally win an award for a leading role. Renée already has a Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG awards, so even the absence of “Judy” in the Best Picture category will not be a problem (this gives Scarlett Johansson minimal chances, but there will be no upset).

Academy members like to reward roles based on real people: Julia Roberts was honored for her portrayal of Erin Brockovich, Gary Oldman for Winston Churchill, and Meryl Streep for embodying Margaret Thatcher on screen. Judy Garland is a Hollywood icon, and this film was originally designed for the Oscars. Zellweger did not let them down. Charlize Theron should feel especially bitter: she is unrecognizable under the makeup in “Bombshell,” but even the topical #MeToo theme did not help this time.

Renée Zellweger in “Judy.” Photo: LD ENTERTAINMENT AND ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS

Best Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) 1.03
Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”) 17.00
Al Pacino (“The Irishman”) 21.00
Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”) 34.00
Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”) 51.00

“It was really a difficult role. A guy who smokes weed, takes off his shirt and fights with his wife,” jokes Brad Pitt. It seemed the actor could get a nomination for “A Star Is Born,” but with it he would have had no chance of winning. But for his supporting role in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Pitt will receive his first Oscar as an actor.

All of his competitors already have statuettes; like Brad, they represent the “old school,” so it is time for Pitt to join the club. The actor is being primed for triumph, as he has been handed awards at all the ceremonies before the Oscars, so he is already ready to deliver a thank-you speech from the stage. Surprises, like Mark Rylance’s win in 2016 when everyone was sure of Sylvester Stallone’s success, should not happen here. Joe Pesci had chances at the start, but Pitt’s promotional campaign suggests they are now zero.

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”) 1.05
Margot Robbie (“Bombshell”) 17.00
Florence Pugh (“Little Women”) 17.00
Scarlett Johansson (“Jojo Rabbit”) 26.00
Kathy Bates (“Richard Jewell”) 67.00

Experts are angry: the unpredictable duel between Jennifer Lopez and Laura Dern, which they had been so looking forward to after “Hustlers,” did not take place. Jennifer Lopez was not even nominated: while she lights up the stage at the Super Bowl halftime show, Dern is preparing to realize that in the trailers for her next films she will turn from “Oscar nominee” into “winner.”

Kathy Bates already has a statuette, while Scarlett Johansson, Florence Pugh and Margot Robbie will still get theirs (probably). Dern deserves the award at least for her years of service, or more precisely, for the fiery monologue about motherhood in “Marriage Story.” Participation in another successful project, “Little Women,” adds weight.

Best Picture

“1917” 1.60
“Parasite” 4.00
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” 9.00
“Joker” 12.00
“Jojo Rabbit” 67.00
“The Irishman” 67.00
“Marriage Story” 101.00
“The Outsiders” 101.00
“Little Women” 101.00

And here the most interesting part begins. At the start of the season the highest chances were given to “The Irishman” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” but the masters Martin Scorsese and Quentin Tarantino stepped aside this season. Sam Mendes’s war epic “1917” is the bookmakers’ favorite. It has already been named best at the Golden Globes, PGA, DGA, BAFTA and Critics’ Choice Awards. But there is a very powerful rival: “Parasite” by Bong Joon-ho.

The South Korean film won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble Cast. The social drama is admired in the US, and it is even being re-released in cinemas. Experts say this may be a purely political decision: America needs to show that it values the culture of other countries and that it is loyal to them.

All fans of the new wave are for “Parasite,” but such people are not the majority among academicians. “1917” is called too old-school and not very inventive in terms of plot, yet many will choose Mendes’s film over “Parasite” simply because “1917” is an American product.

But it is in this category that something unexpected may happen. “Parasite” resembles “Moonlight” and “Spotlight,” underdog films with an important message, which were also not considered the main contenders for victory.

Best Director

Sam Mendes (“1917”) 1.22
Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”) 4.00
Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) 17.00
Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”) 41.00
Todd Phillips (“Joker”) 101.00

The same situation as in the Best Picture category: Sam Mendes versus Bong Joon-ho.

Mendes triumphed at the DGA Awards, and only in 7 of 71 cases has the winner of this award not taken the Oscar. The director of “1917” was also honored at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice. It is believed that the choice in favor of Mendes is purely technical. “1917” is visually impressive: the film has incredibly complex choreography, 24 hours on the battlefield are compressed into a dense 159 minutes, and the “one shot” effect creates an incredible sense of presence for viewers. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Ang Lee and Alfonso Cuarón all took the Oscar for craftsmanship, and Mendes with “1917” fits perfectly into this company.

“Parasite” is a work of a completely different kind. The Oscar is assured, as there are no competitors among foreign-language films. But most experts are confident that the Academy will not limit itself to one statuette. There are three options: Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. Obviously, there will not be double Oscars for film and direction this year. Given that Mendes has better chances in the individual category, could “Parasite” really become the main winner of the evening?

Best Original Screenplay

“Parasite” 1.48
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” 2.80
“Marriage Story” 13.00
“1917” 26.00
“Knives Out” 34.00

Another nomination where the winner cannot be guessed 100%. For months before the Oscars the favorites kept changing: there was talk of a statuette for “Marriage Story,” then audiences were delighted with Rian Johnson’s ideas in “Knives Out,” and there are even those who support “1917,” although in terms of plot it is not the most memorable project. But, it seems, now only two main contenders remain.

Quentin Tarantino won the Golden Globe for the screenplay of “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” rewriting the history of the Dream Factory in his film. Bong Joon-ho was honored by the WGA and BAFTA; his script really looks the most original among the nominees. Among bookmakers “Parasite” became the favorite quite recently, but here everything again depends on choices in other categories. The South Korean film has other options, while for Tarantino a statuette for the screenplay appears to be his only chance.

Best Adapted Screenplay

“Jojo Rabbit” 1.50
“Little Women” 2.80
“The Irishman” 9.00
“Joker” 34.00
“The Two Popes” 51.00

At the USC Scripter ceremony, whose winners matched Oscar laureates in eight of the last ten years, the award went to Greta Gerwig for a new take on the classic American novel “Little Women.” But there seems to be a catch. This is already the seventh adaptation of the book, and the Oscars tend to prefer something fresher. So Taika Waititi and “Jojo Rabbit” have good chances.

This scintillating satire on fascist Germany has already been honored at BAFTA and Writers Guild Awards, outpacing the same “Little Women” and “The Irishman.” This time, respect for the 150-year-old classic should give way to the deserved recognition of the talent of the author of one of the most memorable films of the year.

Best Animated Feature

“Toy Story 4” 1.90
“Klaus” 2.00
“Missing Link” 9.00
“I Lost My Body” 34.00
“How to Train Your Dragon 3” 67.00

Disney’s big project, “Frozen 2,” did not even make it into the nomination, and this is already unexpected. “Toy Story 4” won the Critics’ Choice and PGA awards; academicians love the franchise, but the Pixar cartoon has serious competitors.

“Missing Link” from the Laika studio won the Golden Globe. “Klaus” from Netflix took seven prizes at the Annie ceremony, which is considered the most indicative ahead of the Oscars. So Spanish animation may establish itself as a new Christmas classic, outpacing Woody and Buzz, who are beloved by viewers but too familiar.