COVID-19 Pandemic May End by End of 2022 — Scientists

Scientists agree that the coronavirus will become an endemic or seasonal disease.

Scientists predict that the pandemic may end in a number of countries as early as next year and turn into a seasonal disease. This is reported by Reuters , based on more than ten interviews with medical professionals and scientists.

First of all, scientists warn that SARS-CoV-2 remains an unpredictable virus that constantly mutates and spreads among the unvaccinated population. 

However, they note that it is unlikely to expect an “apocalyptic scenario” in which the virus mutates too quickly for vaccines to build immunity. 

Most of the experts surveyed are confident that the worst phase of the pandemic will end as early as next year.

Maria van Kerkhove
head of the WHO expert group

We believe that even before the end of 2022, the situation with the virus will return to a controlled state, and we will be able to significantly reduce the number of severe cases of the disease and deaths.

According to WHO plans, by the end of 2022, 70% of the world’s population will be vaccinated.

“If we reach this mark, we will be in a radically different situation in terms of epidemiology,” van Kerkhove said.

Meanwhile, she is concerned that countries will prematurely lift COVID precautions. “It is surprising for me to see people on the streets, as if everything is already over.”

Several experts said they expect the Delta variant wave in the United States to end this month and become the last major COVID-19 wave in the country.

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that for the United Kingdom, “most of the pandemic as an emergency is already behind us.”

According to another scientist, Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, the transition from pandemic to an endemic disease will vary in each country depending on the level of immunity among the population and the availability of vaccines.

Other colleagues of his suggest that over time, COVID-19 may simply become a seasonal disease that will no longer pose such a threat to the population.

Experts also believe that the first countries to recover from the pandemic will be those that combine a high level of vaccination with a level of natural immunity among people who have recovered from COVID-19. These countries include the United States, the United Kingdom, Portugal and India.

According to a WHO report of October 26, over the past three months there has been a decline in COVID-19 cases and deaths in most regions of the world. 

However, this does not apply to Eastern Europe, where a new outbreak of the Delta variant is underway, in particular in countries with low vaccination rates, such as Russia and Romania.