Svitolina and Yastremska Put on an Impressive Show in China. What Awaits Them Next?

And do they really need to go to Moscow?

The two best Ukrainian tennis players, Elina Svitolina and Dayana Yastremska, played their first major tournament after the US Open in tandem. At the prestigious Premier 5 event in Wuhan, China, the Ukrainians reached the quarterfinals, and this result will seriously affect their further fight for a place at the season-ending tournaments.

What Happened in Wuhan

September is a purely Chinese month in women's tennis. Every week, different tournaments take place there, so tennis players do not have to make long flights to Asia and back; they can simply move from city to city.

That is exactly what Elina Svitolina is doing. Her calendar includes four Chinese tournaments, with Wuhan being the third. In the two previous events (in Zhengzhou and Guangzhou), the Ukrainian exited in the same way: she won her first match and lost in the second. In Wuhan, the top Ukrainian racket managed a better result: she beat two opponents before losing in the quarterfinal.

What made the difference for Elina? First of all, she drew fairly favorable opponents. Svitolina played three times against unstable attacking players and mostly forced them into errors. While the first two opponents actually made more errors than successful attacks, the third (American Alison Riske) knocked Elina out of the tournament with powerful shots.

To confirm Svitolina's passive tactics, it is enough to look at the numbers. Over three matches, Elina hit 39 winners, while her opponents hit 72. In terms of active winners, the Ukrainian was weaker in every match, but this is normal: Svitolina almost always plays this way. Her strength lies in consistency and avoiding a large number of errors. What does this mean? For example, the number of unforced errors in Svitolina's three matches in Wuhan was 59, while her opponents committed 113.

Elina made the most errors in the quarterfinal: 27 against Alison Riske's 29. Such a number of failed actions is explained by the need to attack (after all, the Ukrainian was losing during the match), as well as by the American's very successful play, which wore down her opponent on court. And right away, as soon as the number of errors between Elina and her opponent became nearly equal, the Ukrainian was eliminated.

On the other hand, there is Dayana Yastremska, whose style of play does not involve adjusting to her opponent. Dayana is too attacking a player to play tactical games like Svitolina's. And in Wuhan, Yastremska was able, perhaps for the first time at such a big tournament, to maintain a stable level of play over several matches.

Unlike Elina, Dayana played four matches on court (Svitolina skipped the first round), and in the third round she sensationally defeated the world No. 2, Czech player Karolina Pliskova. This victory was Yastremska's first in her career over a top-10 player in the world rankings.

After the match, the Ukrainian said she did not think about her opponent's status, which is why she was able to win: “When I stepped onto the court, I completely forgot who I was playing. I just played the ball, I just did my job.” Obviously, the psychological factor influenced the course of the match: Dayana hit 26 winners against her opponent's 8 and simply did not give her opponent a chance to turn things around.

In the quarterfinal, Yastremska was eliminated by another top-10 Czech player, Petra Kvitova. The more experienced Kvitova tried to make the rallies as long as possible, which worked against the Ukrainian, who likes to attack powerfully right away. She also very boldly attacked Yastremska's second serve, for which Dayana was not prepared. Ultimately, even reaching the quarterfinal is a very impressive result for the Ukrainian.

Three weeks remain until the end of the tennis season. Both Svitolina and Yastremska are fighting for a place at the season-ending tournaments for the best players of the year. Svitolina is aiming to reach the WTA Finals, the tournament for the 8 best players of the year. Svitolina is the reigning champion of that tournament. Yastremska is fighting to qualify for the WTA Elite Trophy, a tournament for 12 tennis players who did not make the WTA Finals but are among the top 20 at the end of the season.

WTA Finals: Svitolina's Situation

The quarterfinal in Wuhan brought Elina 190 points, which allowed her to rise to eighth place (the last qualifying spot) in the race for the WTA Finals. Svitolina's lead over ninth place is 195 points. Here is the full standings table for qualification for the tournament.

In total, only ten tennis players are vying for a spot in the WTA Finals, and the biggest battle will be for the last two places. Serena Williams is essentially a bystander: although she is in seventh place, she is not playing the September Chinese swing and cannot earn more points. She can only wait.

Elina's gap to Serena is 145 points. Reaching the quarterfinal in Beijing (210 points) will allow the Ukrainian to overtake the American. But the most important task for Svitolina will not be catching Serena's position, but defending against Bencic and Bertens.

And most likely, everything will be decided in Beijing. If Elina can achieve the same result as Belinda and Kiki, she has a 99% chance of qualifying for the season-ending tournament.

How so? Svitolina's lead over Bertens is 300 points, which Kiki cannot make up even if she wins in Moscow. That leaves Bencic, who trails Elina by 195 points and can overtake her only by winning in Linz.

  WTA Elite Trophy: Yastremska's Situation

“I had a goal for this season, to reach the top 20. Now I have a few more tournaments, but I am not putting too much pressure on myself.” These are the words of Dayana Yastremska during the Wuhan tournament. With three weeks left in the season, the Ukrainian is ranked 27th in the world and is also vying for a spot in the WTA Elite Trophy (the second season-ending tournament). Both goals are entirely achievable.

Dayana trails the qualifying spot by 208 points, but has three tournaments ahead, where 1750 points are up for grabs: Beijing (1000), Tianjin (280) and Moscow (470). Obviously, she will try to fulfill her goal and enter the top 20 (and also qualify for the season-ending tournament).

Dayana is separated from a qualifying spot by as many as three rivals, but it is still unknown who will go to the season-ending tournament and who will want to skip it. It is clear that Yastremska needs to earn points and play as well as possible. And it is clear that if not for the 190 points from Wuhan, the Ukrainian's chances of reaching the season-ending tournament would be much lower right now.

Who are Yastremska's rivals? Americans Amanda Anisimova, Sloane Stephens and Alison Riske, Estonian Anett Kontaveit, Greek Maria Sakkari and Latvian Anastasija Sevastova. Not all of them have entered all three tournaments, which is an advantage for Dayana, as she will have more chances to earn points.

As with Elina, Beijing will be decisive for Yastremska. Up to 1000 points can be earned there, but reaching the quarterfinal (210 points) is a realistic goal. If Dayana is knocked out right at the start, she will then have to win in Tianjin and compete in Moscow.

Does She Need to Go to Moscow?

It is worth emphasizing that both tennis players entered the Moscow tournament only for career goals. They need to earn points, and Moscow remains the last such opportunity.

But even despite making the tournament's entry list, Svitolina and Yastremska may still not go there. Everything will depend on their performance in Beijing. If the result is unsuccessful, there is no alternative to Moscow. But if Elina performs better than Bencic and Bertens, and Yastremska simply earns as many points as possible, then Moscow will be an unnecessary tournament that both tennis players can cross off their calendars.

Oleksii Mandzii