US Intelligence: Origin of COVID-19 Will Remain a Mystery Forever

Beijing, as before, is obstructing the international investigation.

US intelligence said it may never be able to establish the cause of the coronavirus's emergence. However, the agency continues to hold the view that the virus was not specifically created as a biological weapon. 

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence published a new version of its analysis of the coronavirus's sources. In August, the administration of US President Joe Biden released the previous version. 

The new report, as before, considers two hypotheses for the origin of the disease: a leak from a laboratory (in this context, people usually think of the Wuhan Institute of Virology) and a natural mutation when the virus, which previously circulated among animals, was transmitted to humans. 

Both versions remain equally likely, since no new data has emerged that would allow one to be favored and the other rejected. It is worth noting that China views this US intelligence project unfavorably. 

US intelligence consists of 17 agencies. Four of them lean toward the version of a natural origin of the virus, but acknowledge that their confidence in this version is low. 

One agency believes that the first human infections with the coronavirus resulted from a laboratory leak, possibly during experiments or work with infected animals at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The intelligence analysts consider this conclusion more likely. 

"Most likely, China's cooperation will be required for a final assessment of the origin of the coronavirus. However, Beijing continues to obstruct the global investigation, resist information sharing and blame other countries, including the US. These actions partly reflect the Chinese government's uncertainty about where the investigation might lead, as well as its frustration that the international community is using this issue to put political pressure on China," the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said. 

The report says that US intelligence and the global scientific community lack clinical samples or a full understanding of epidemiological data on the earliest cases of coronavirus infection: "If we obtain information about the earliest cases in which a place of interest or occupational exposure was identified, this could change our assessment of the hypotheses." 

According to the official Chinese version, the first outbreak of the new virus began at a bird market in Wuhan in 2019. That is why the version of a natural origin of the virus was initially considered the only well-founded one, and many scientists regarded attempts to link the virus to the activities of the Wuhan Institute as conspiracy theories. 

However, in early 2021, American media found indirect testimony that allows the version of a laboratory leak to be taken more seriously. In May, President Joe Biden instructed intelligence agencies to analyze all information on both versions, without ruling out the laboratory one.

The Chinese embassy in Washington called the new US intelligence report a farce: "US attempts to rely not on scientists but on the intelligence apparatus to detect the sources of the coronavirus are a complete political farce. We support efforts to search for its origins on a scientific basis and will continue to take an active part in this process. However, we firmly reject attempts to politicize this issue."